Split the Brunson-Downs combination? Trade Hart? What should the Knicks do next?

(The article was published on May 31, and the author is Sam Quinn, a reporter for CBS. The content of the article does not represent the translator's opinion.)

If you want to know why the New York Knicks lost to the Indiana Pacers 125-108 in the Eastern Conference Finals G6, or cannot win the series, you may need to go back to the summer of 2022. At that time, they not only signed Jaylen Brunson, the iconic player, but also signed a little-known backup center, Isaiah Hartenstein, with a two-year contract worth $16 million.

And it was this contract that ultimately led to the failure of the Knicks.

Brunson became the team's facade, but Haltenstein was the backbone of the team. Brunson leads the offense with his one-on-one ability, but it’s not an efficient way of playing. Although New York ranked fourth and seventh in offensive rankings in 2023 and 2024, it fell out of the top ten in half-time scoring efficiency. Their strength lies in their strong offensive rebounding ability, and Haltenstein is a key figure.

Brunson's ball-handling style makes the Knicks often have hasty shots when the offensive time is about to end. Haltenstein's support capability has become an important decompression valve in this case. His organizational skills keep his teammates involved, while Brunson keeps breaking through on the court. Most importantly, he is probably one of the most underrated defensive players in the league. Based on the estimated positive and negative values, he was the top five defender in the league last season.

Ultimately, Haltenstein's performance was too good for New York. The Knicks have only signed him for two years, meaning that in 2024 as a full free agent, they can only use early bird rights to renew him, giving him a 75% raise at most — which will give him a starting salary of about $16.2 million on his new contract. The Oklahoma City Thunder eventually signed him for an annual salary of $30 million. If the Knicks give him a third year contract in 2022, they will have full bird rights in 2025 and can pay any amount to keep him. If they free up more salary space in 2022, they can also pay higher salaries and increase the maximum salary increase allowed through early bird rights. The Knicks were punished for finding a player who was worth the money.

tried boldly...but failed to get what you want?

The New York Knicks' roster was significantly affected after losing a key role player. Center Mitchell Robinson missed most of the regular season due to injury, which put the Knicks in a difficult situation. They don't have a center that can be competent for the starter, and at this time they have just sent away five first-round picks due to the Mikal Bridges trade. Therefore, general manager Leon Ross made a bold decision to fundamentally change the team's lineup theory: exchange Randall, Divinsonzo and a first-round draft pick for Towns.

From then on, the Knicks can no longer rely on tenacious defense and fighting spirit to win. They are now designed as an offensive team that can play five outsiders. However, this plan did not achieve the expected results. Although they finally made the top ten in half-time scoring, their overall offensive ranking dropped from the highest fourth in the Hartenstein era to fifth after losing their huge offensive rebounding advantage. Since opponents mainly ignore Hart's defense and Thibodeau refuses to adjust the starting lineup, the Knicks have never found an ideal five-ocean space. They do well offensively, sometimes even excellent, but never reach the top level.

And they have to reach the top level because the core problem is that when Brunson and Towns are on the field at the same time, they can’t effectively stop opponents from scoring, and their offensive firepower isn’t enough to make up for that. The following are the Knicks' lineup data in the playoffs as of Game 5 of the series against the Pacers:

When Brunson and Towns are on the court at the same time, the Knicks' offensive efficiency is 115.4, defensive efficiency is 117.2, net efficiency value -1.8;

When Brunson and Towns are on the court, the Knicks' offensive efficiency is 121.2, defensive efficiency is 116.8, net efficiency value +4.4;

When Brunson and Towns are on the court, the Knicks' offensive efficiency is 110, defensive efficiency is 98.9, net efficiency value +11.1;

When Brunson and Towns are on the court, the Knicks' offensive efficiency is 92.6, defensive efficiency is 110.6, net efficiency value -18.

Without two All-Star players, the Knicks' performance was indeed bad. When Brunson leads the team alone, his outstanding offensive performance is enough to make up for the shortcomings of the defensive end; and when Towns leads the team alone, his strong defense can also support a weaker offense.

However, when two people are on the court at the same time, a good offense cannot make up for the shortcomings of defense. Adversaries can find targets that can be attacked based on their characteristics. As the Knicks start to switch more defenses later in the playoffs to deal with the Po Celtics and Pacers’ projecting threat, offensive players always find their preferred misplacement opportunities. Whether you want to attack the defender or the big man, there is always an option that is feasible.

So, what measures can the Knicks take?

If the Knicks hope to win the championship in the near future, they have three paths to choose from this offseason:

1. Try to improve the overall defense so that it can handle two defensive weaknesses.

2. Try to strengthen the offense so that it can make up for a mediocre defense.

3. Break up the combination of Towns and Brunson.

The Knicks' first big deal should have paved the way for the second one. Part of the appeal of strengthening Bridges is that he can theoretically be a top wing defender with Anunobi, which may allow the Knicks to build a playoff-level defense with two defensive weaknesses. If the Brunson Towns combination disbands, it is almost certain that Towns will leave.

About Durant

Whenever a team is eliminated, the first name mentioned is often Kevin Durant. It is reported that the two sides had mutual interest before the transaction deadline. Towns became the easiest salary matcher with his super maximum salary contract. He is particularly attractive to the sun because the sun needs to make Booker happy. Towns and Booker are college teammates, and they are also friends of Russell, who is about to become free agents. In 2019, the three of them appeared on the cover of SLAM magazine and vowed to play together one day. Now may be their chance.

Is Durant suitable for the Knicks? This problem is more difficult to analyze. Durant no longer hits the basket as frequently as before, you trade him because he is a pitcher, and the Knicks already have a top pitcher - Brunson. To some extent, the Knicks might become a team like the Suns, but there will be some depth, defense and versatility.

Durant is a useful defender, but he is not a center, which is a problem for the Knicks, especially if Towns leaves. Robinson's health is already worrying enough that the Knicks definitely need another starting-level center to serve as insurance and share his playing time when he is healthy. They might need to use Hart’s salary space to find a big guy elsewhere. Will the Knicks renew Durant's upcoming contract? They almost have to do that, but paying a 37-year-old star-level salary could significantly narrow the window for the championship.

It might make more sense to use the Sun's interest in Towns to trade Durant elsewhere for some assets. The Rockets and the Spurs obviously have a lot to offer. Other teams have fewer ones. It would be difficult to speculate specifically without knowing his market, but the idea here is to readjust it, and then the Knicks' lineup becomes younger, deeper, cheaper, and leave room for future opportunities.

Downs' dilemma

Where are other teams who will consider Towns? This is a little tricky considering his contract. Finding a team willing to pay a super top salary for a center who is not good at framing protection will be difficult. Maybe in some specific situations, others on the team will create this need. For example, the Pelicans. To maximize Zion's offensive ability, they may need a big man who can shoot three points. The Pelicans happen to have a wing-side excess. Can the Knicks convince Joe Dumas to trade Towns with Herbert Jones, CJ McCollum and rookie center Yves Missy? Then they can have Robinson and Missy rotate to play center. With Jones, Anunobi and Bridges, the Knicks really have their dream wing defense, and McCollum can offer a backup offense at Brunson's break. However, the Pelicans’ plan is not yet clear, so such a deal is still hypothetical.

Compare the value of Towns and Bridges in the transaction. Towns is a better and more accomplished player, but Bridges' versatility makes him worth more. The Knicks may have overestimated Bridges’ worth and traded five first-round picks for him, but the Grizzlies have reportedly offered four before. The reason why versatile wing players are so valuable is that any team can use them reasonably. Towns is a specific need. Teams that are interested in him may be very interested, but the potential destinations will be narrower.

This is the easiest reason why Towns should not be expected to be traded. He is harder to trade than usual players of his class. The Knicks can and should keep their attention. But it is very likely that the solution will have to be some small-scale or internal tweaks. Whether it’s rescheduling the rotation, signing a suitable base salary contract or exploring Hart’s deal, the goal next season may be to make the Brunson-Downs combination feasible. This may mean strengthening the offense, or improving the defense to a level that is enough to pass, but neither path is clear.

This is what they lost at the same time when they lost Haltenstein. Although he is not a star, he has not dragged his back on both offense and defense. The Knicks never had to worry about his cooperation with Brunson or someone else. Their new center is more dynamic, but also more vulnerable. This eliminates their fault tolerance space. If Towns is going to lead them through four rounds of the playoffs, they have to make sure everything around them is perfect. This means perfect lineup building, proper lineup selection and appropriate tactical decision-making. If the Knicks can do all this, they can win the 2025-26 championship. But what if any of them worry about not being able to do it? At that time, the deal for Towns became more likely.

Original text: Sam Quinn

Compiled by: JayChan