Review the Towns deal: win-win! But considering salary, lineup and environment, the Knicks are the bigger winners

. The Timberwolves fear they can’t afford it, and perhaps even more frustratingly, they could be trapped in a big contract that is hard to trade when saving money has never been so difficult in league history. They see the Towns deal as the last chance to retain some flexibility when building a team around 23-year-old Edwards.

Yes, they are likely to lose some players this summer. But they will retain most of the team’s core and thus gain the flexibility to capture it when the opportunity arises. If Towns is still on the team, the Timberwolves may be powerless when the team is in poor condition. They may already be in an awkward position: enough to make it to the back-end round of the playoffs, but they will be completely defeated once they meet the Thunder. This is still a risk. The Thunder are far more talented than they are, which is reflected in the first game of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday. But now at least they have a chance to solve this problem. On the other hand, the Knicks may have some sense of security about their current roster, but it will be extremely difficult to improve on this basis.

Final judgment

Although the victory is by no means decisive, I doubt the Knicks will be the ultimate winner in the deal in the end. This doesn't mean the Timberwolves are the loser, but I'm a little skeptical about Randle's current performance. Remember, before Randall returned from injury in March, the Timberwolves had a record of 32-29, when he hadn't started hitting a jump shot, and it looks like they might need to figure out how to deal with his player options next season, just to keep Reed and Alexander Walker behind.

He has obviously changed a lot since then, but I don't believe that all this means the Timberwolves have a stable championship squad. They played against a Lakers without a center in the first round. It is natural for a scorer with excellent physical fitness to benefit from opponents who lack the basket protection. They played against a Golden State Warriors in the second round, missing Stephen Curry. Victories are still valid, but they should not be included in our long-term predictions for the team. If the Timberwolves met the Nuggets or the Clippers in the first round, this was a very real possibility, and they might lose the game in the first round, then the discussion would sound very different. This year, the competition in the Western Conference except the Thunder is extremely fierce. The Timberwolves were in the middle of that group and entered the semifinals with a relatively relaxed schedule. The series against the Thunder will show us the real gap between them. I suspect the answer is "not too close", at least according to the first game.

Does this necessarily mean that the Knicks are closer to success? No, but remember that their threshold for success is relatively lower. They are now in an open Eastern Division. The threshold is lower, especially with Jason Tatum expected to be out next season. If these two teams are equal in strength in the future, you will expect the Knicks to achieve more success through weaker competition. This may not sound fair, but that's what life in the NBA is. Once you get to this point, it only takes one sprain of your ankle or an inappropriate flu to change the title. The Knicks are more likely to benefit from potential good luck than the Timberwolves. As of Thursday, the Knicks had a much higher odds in the NBA Finals than the Timberwolves (betting odds of -165 vs +470).

Nevertheless, everything the Knicks did against the Celtics is more impressive than anything the Timberwolves have performed so far this year’s playoffs. Even though it required a change in the shooting feel and a massive counterattack tactic, they still beat the defending champion with 61 wins three times in four games with Tatum. The Knicks will need to adjust the lineup details. Given their health this season apart from Robinson’s absence, you’ll find that the Knicks’ roster is far from enough. But they have built a reasonable and adaptable core lineup in general. They can remain sustainable with their existing lineup.

What if the Timberwolves gave Randle a long-term contract and he was as unstable as before? Or what if he just slid slightly with age, but made Reed leave as a free agent, so that the Timberwolves were forced to rely on him more than they would have hoped? Towns is relatively more stable. If the Knicks need to move him to the power forward position, they can do that. But the Timberwolves couldn't move Randall to the center, and as Gobert got older, that kind of lost flexibility would become important. With his shooting ability, Towns can delay the downward trend slightly longer. If Randall loses his physical advantage, he loses more value.

Last year, the Timberwolves were somewhat explicitly stronger than the Knicks. And this year, the Knicks are slightly better than the Timberwolves. It is in a more favorable division and has gotten better players in this deal. With all this in mind, the benefits the Knicks get from this trade will be more obvious over time than the Timberwolves. This doesn't mean the Timberwolves aren't benefiting from it. It's entirely possible that it's a win, and getting rid of Towns' contract now will eventually allow them to form a suitable roster around Edwards in the future. However, for now, the advantage belongs to the Towns and the Knicks.

Author: Sam Quinn

Translator: GWayNe